Baseball

American League top to bottom

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I spent the past six weeks comparing the 30 current big-league clubs against 1,258 teams from the span between 1976 and 2020, better known as the era of free agency. My aim was to find trends from the past that might help us predict the future.

The process yielded the following predicted champions in the American League. Click on the links to revisit each 2023 divisional forecast:

My predictions for 2023 are based on the next-year records for each current club’s 50 closest matches (CMs) from the past. I ranked the 15 American League clubs by the number of CMs that qualified for the playoffs in their subsequent seasons. I employed a progressive series of stats to break any ties: (1) CMs who won league titles, (2) CMs who won world championships, and (3) the current clubs’ records in 2022.

Listed below are the predicted AL rankings for 2023, based on my historical analysis. Each club’s 2022 record is followed by its winning percentage and postseason abbreviations (if applicable) of P for a playoff berth, L for a league championship, and W for a world title.

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  • Results for 50 closest matches: 31 playoff qualifiers, 14 league titles, 8 world championships

  • Forecast for 2023 regular season: 1st place in AL West

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: Yes, division champion

  • Record in 2022: 106-56 (.654, WLP)

  • Results for 50 closest matches: 23 playoff qualifiers, 7 league titles, 3 world championships

  • Forecast for 2023 regular season: 1st place in AL East

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: Yes, division champion

  • Record in 2022: 92-70 (.568, P)

  • Results for 50 closest matches: 21 playoff qualifiers, 11 league titles, 5 world championships

  • Forecast for 2023 regular season: 2nd place in AL East

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: Yes, wild-card qualifier

  • Record in 2022: 86-76 (.531, P)

  • Results for 50 closest matches: 21 playoff qualifiers, 5 league titles, 2 world championships

  • Forecast for 2023 regular season: 3rd place in AL East

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: Yes, wild-card qualifier

  • Record in 2022: 99-63 (.611, P)

  • Results for 50 closest matches: 14 playoff qualifiers, 3 league titles, 0 world championships

  • Forecast for 2023 regular season: 2nd place in AL West

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: Yes, wild-card qualifier

  • Record in 2022: 90-72 (.556, P)

  • Results for 50 closest matches: 14 playoff qualifiers, 1 league title, 1 world championship

  • Forecast for 2023 regular season: 1st place in AL Central

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: Yes, division champion

  • Record in 2022: 92-70 (.568, P)

  • Results for 50 closest matches: 13 playoff qualifiers, 2 league titles, 1 world championship

  • Forecast for 2023 regular season: 4th place in AL East

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: No

  • Record in 2022: 78-84 (.481)

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  • Results for 50 closest matches: 11 playoff qualifiers, 1 league title, 1 world championship

  • Forecast for 2023 regular season: 2nd place in AL Central

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: No

  • Record in 2022: 81-81 (.500)

  • Results for 50 closest matches: 8 playoff qualifiers, 2 league titles, 1 world championship

  • Forecast for 2023 regular season: 3rd place in AL Central

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: No

  • Record in 2022: 78-84 (.481)

  • Results for 50 closest matches: 8 playoff qualifiers, 2 league titles, 1 world championship

  • Forecast for 2023 regular season: 3rd place in AL West

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: No

  • Record in 2022: 73-89 (.451)

  • Results for 50 closest matches: 7 playoff qualifiers, 2 league titles, 0 world championships

  • Forecast for 2023 regular season: 5th place in AL East

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: No

  • Record in 2022: 83-79 (.512)

  • Results for 50 closest matches: 7 playoff qualifiers, 0 league titles, 0 world championships

  • Forecast for 2023 regular season: 4th place in AL West

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: No

  • Record in 2022: 68-94 (.420)

  • Results for 50 closest matches: 5 playoff qualifiers, 1 league title, 1 world championship

  • Forecast for 2023 regular season: 4th place in AL Central

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: No

  • Record in 2022: 65-97 (.401)

  • Results for 50 closest matches: 3 playoff qualifiers, 1 league title, 1 world championship

  • Forecast for 2023 regular season: 5th place in AL Central

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: No

  • Record in 2022: 66-96 (.407)

  • Results for 50 closest matches: 3 playoff qualifiers, 0 league titles, 0 world championships

  • Forecast for 2023 regular season: 5th place in AL West

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: No

  • Record in 2022: 60-102 (.370)

A complete rundown of 2022 stats — and a look ahead at the season to come

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